Panel Data, Local Cuts, and Orthogeodesic Models

Orthogeodesic models admit marginal local cuts and therefore separate inference on subparameters is asymptotically justified. Doubly-flat orthogeodesic models admit local cuts marginally and conditionally. Two important empirical models for panel data are used to illustrate this property and demonstrate its usefulness. The relation to local ancillarity and local sufficiency is explored. An alternative characterization of local cuts in terms of curvature is given and shown to be intrinsic. Applications to semiparametric estimation are considered.

The Static and Dynamic Benefits of Migration and Remittances in Nicaragua

This paper utilizes a unique three-wave panel of household data from Nicaragua, which allows a thorough exploration of the relationships between migration, remittances and household consumption. The paper distinguishes between the effects of emigration and the impacts of remittances received. There is a self-selection bias in the decision to send a migrant, as well as in the decision to receive remittances. To adequately correct for these selection biases, we develop a bivariate selection correction procedure. Perhaps surprisingly, the results show that households do not benefit (in terms of higher consumption growth) from receiving remittances, but rather from having migrants abroad. This suggests that not only money are remitted from abroad, but also something more subtle, which could be business ideas, belief systems, aspirations, patterns of social interaction, and other intangibles, which have been dubbed social remittances.Migration, Remittances, Social Remittances, Nicaragua, Bivariate Selection Correction

The Implied-Realized Volatility Relation with Jumps in Underlying Asset Prices

Recent developments allow a nonparametric separation of the continuous sample path component and the jump component of realized volatility. The jump component has very different time series properties than the continuous component, and accounting for this allows improved forecasting of future realized volatility. We investigate the potential forecasting role of implied volatility backed out from option prices in the presence of these new separate realized volatility components. We show that implied volatility has incremental information relative to both the continuous and jump components of realized volatility when forecasting subsequently realized return volatility, and it appears to be an unbiased forecast. Furthermore, implied volatility has predictive power for future values of each component of realized volatility separately, showing in particular that even the jump component of realized volatility is, to some extent, predictable.Bipower variation, implied volatility, instrumental variables, jumps, options, realized volatility, stock prices, vector autoregressive model, volatility forecasting

Labor Mobility in Bolivia: On-the-job Search Behavior of Private and Public Sector Employees

This paper estimates structural parameters of both a simple and an extended job separation model with the purpose of understanding constraints in the labor market in Bolivia. The results confirm the hypothesis that skilled labor is a scarce commodity in Bolivia, while unskilled labor is abundantly available. This implies that skilled employees shop around for alternative employment opportunities and quit their jobs when a better opportunity arises. The quit rate among skilled employees in the private sector is much higher than the quit rate among skilled employees in the public sector. The reverse is true for the lay-off rate, and together this suggests that the private sector has difficulties maintaining its skilled labor. The estimates of the wage sensitivity of job search effort parameters presented in this paper suggest that it would be difficult for the private sector to improve its capacity to retain skilled employees by increasing wages – skilled employees in the private sector do not seem to reduce their on-the-job search in response to higher wages. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that the public sector in Bolivia, inflated by high levels of foreign aid (about 10% of GDP), may be detracting scarce human resources from local productive sectors, potentially jeopardizing the opportunity for sustainable development.Mobility, on-the-job search, labor markets, Bolivia

Hvad forstås ved begrebet jordens frugtbarhed

Jordens frugtbarhed afhænger af et komplekst samspil mellem naturgivne og menneskeskabte forhold. En karakterisering af jordens frugtbarhed kræver bestemmelse af flere nøgleparametres udvikling over tid. Begrebet jordens frugtbarhed kan meningsfyldt defineres som jordens evne til vedvarende at understøtte en landbrugsmæssig planteproduktion, der er forsvarlig med hensyn til omfang, kvalitet, rentabilitet og påvirkning af det omgivende miljø. Jordens frugtbarhed vil således være påvirket af driftsform og planteproduktionens teknologiske og økonomiske rammer

The Information Content of Treasury Bond Options Concerning Future Volatility and Price Jumps

We study the relation between realized and implied volatility in the bond market. Realized volatility is constructed from high-frequency (5-minute) returns on 30 year Treasury bond futures. Implied volatility is backed out from prices of associated bond options. Recent nonparametric statistical techniques are used to separate realized volatility into its continuous sample path and jump components, thus enhancing forecasting performance. We generalize the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model to include implied volatility as an additional regressor, and to the separate forecasting of the realized components. We also introduce a new vector HAR (VecHAR) model for the resulting simultaneous system, controlling for possible endogeneity of implied volatility in the forecasting equations. We show that implied volatility is a biased and inefficient forecast in the bond market. However, implied volatility does contain incremental information about future volatility relative to both components of realized volatility, and even subsumes the information content of daily and weekly return based measures. Perhaps surprisingly, the jump component of realized bond return volatility is, to some extent, predictable, and bond options appear to be calibrated to incorporate information about future jumps in Treasury bond prices, and hence interest rates.Bipower variation, bond futures options, HAR, Heterogeneous Autoregressive Model, implied volatility, jumps, realized volatility, VecHAR, volatility forecasting

Forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility in the Presence of Jumps

We study measures of foreign exchange rate volatility based on high-frequency (5-minute) $/DM exchange rate returns using recent nonparametric statistical techniques to compute realized return volatility and its separate continuous sample path and jump components, and measures based on prices of exchange rate futures options, allowing calculation of option implied volatility. We find that implied volatility is an informationally efficient but biased forecast of future realized exchange rate volatility. Furthermore, we show that log-normality is an even better distributional approximation for implied volatility than for realized volatility in this market. Finally, we show that the jump component of future realized exchange rate volatility is to some extent predictable, and that option implied volatility is the dominant forecast of the future jump component.bipower variation, currency options, exchange rates, implied volatility, jumps, realized volatility

The Impact of Aid on Recipient Behavior: A Micro-Level Dynamic Analysis of Remittances, Schooling, Work, Consumption, Investment and Social Mobility in Nicaragua

Remittances are a very important source of income for many Nicaraguan families. More than 40% of all households receive remittances that on average amount to 12-15% of total household income in these households. More than 30% of these households receive remittances at least monthly, implying that it is a relatively stable source of income. This paper shows that remittances do tend to reduce the vulnerability of households and increase their upward social mobility, at least as long as the households do not depend too heavily on remittances. However, remittances also cause moral hazard problems. Nicaraguans tend to reduce their labor supply in response to more remittances, and they also tend to reduce their savings rates, both of which are detrimental to long run economic growth.Remittances, aid, Nicaragua